So you want to beat the race and sportsbook?
It’s easy. Well, sort of. Just pick teams that are winning.
Ah, you want an example.
OK, let’s take last Tuesday. The Vegas Golden Knights had been eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs, and it was another humdrum day ending in “y.”
But there were a couple of possibilities that caught our eye. First was Game 7 in the NBA Western Conference Finals. It was the Denver Nuggets vs. the L.A. Clippers, and the Nuggets had been either winning or covering. Some expected the heavily favored Clippers to roll over the Nuggets but they hadn’t. Down 3-1 in the series, the Nuggets, 8.5 point ‘dogs twice, had won two in a row to force Game 7. They were around +320 on the money line both times.
Why not play the Nuggets again to win Game 7? They were +7.5 this time and the money line was around +270. Remember, the theory is to bet teams that are winning and have momentum.
And what happened?
The Nuggets won again, beating the Clippers, 104-89, and winning the series. See how easy this is? (If you were watching totals, oddsmakers ratcheted the number down throughout the series, but every game went under except one, which pushed.)
On the same day, we glanced the line for the Yankees-Blue Jays game in Major League Baseball. After hitting a rough 5-15 patch, the Yankees were starting to regain momentum. They were a not unreasonable -158 vs. the Jays and +115 on the run line.
And the outcome? The Yankees unloaded on the Jays and won 20-6, and yes, the score sounded more like a football game with some botched PATs than a baseball game.
Turns out the Yankees were just getting rolling.
On Wednesday, they Bronx Bombers had Gerrit Cole on the mound and were a fat -260 favorite. They won again, 13-2.
On Thursday, the oddsmakers made the Yankees -220. They won again, 10-7.
Easy, right? Maybe, but be careful.
In fact, Thursday was another opportunity to test the Ride the Winner Theory (RTW) in the NBA playoffs.
The Miami Heat, one of the biggest surprises in the playoffs in the “bubble” at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, were +3 in Game 2. The Heat gained notoriety after ousting the Milwaukee Bucks, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, in five games. On Tuesday, the Heat struck again, defeating the Boston Celtics 117-114, in Game 1 as +2 underdogs in the Eastern Conference Finals.
And Thursday? The Heat won yet again, rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat the Celtics, 106-101.
Riding the winners can indeed be profitable — if you’re situationally aware.
Elsewhere:
— The line has moved on the total in the New Orleans Saints at the Las Vegas Raiders Monday Night Football extravaganza. It has dropped from 51.5 to 48.5 in the last week. Saints are generally still -5.5 for the game, which is being carried on ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes with additional coverage on ESPN2. In short, if you’re out and about, it’ll be on practically every TV monitor in casinos, bars and restrooms.
— The Dallas Stars struck first in the Stanley Cup Final, beating the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-1. The rested Stars, who defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals in five games, had been getting little respect. They were as high as +170 on the series and +140 in Game 1. The adjusted series odds now show the Stars at -109 and the Lightning at -106, according to Vegas Insider. Game 2 is Monday.
— You had to shelve the RWT (Ride the Winners Theory) on Saturday and trot out the ZT (ZigZag Theory) in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals in the NBA. After the Celtics lost the first two games and engaged in some yelling and screaming among team members, it was a perfect spot to back them in Game 3. We were on the halftime line at Celtics -2.5, but the first quarter line at around -2 and the game at -3 were all winners as the Celtics beat the Heat 117-106. Game 4 is Monday.
— The No. 1 seeded Las Vegas Aces were upset Sunday by the Connecticut Sun in Game 1 of WBNA Semifinals. The Aces, -6 vs. the Sun, fell 87-62 and were outscored in all four quarters. In fact, they scored only 10 points in the first quarter. Game 2 is Tuesday.
— No. 1 ranked Clemson was -49 vs. Citadel in early college football betting. But the line moved to -50.5. The Tigers led 49-0 at halftime but took their foot off the gas in the second half. The final score: 49-0. (They did cover the first-half line at around -36.)
— No. 23 Appalachian State, frequently a popular play in college football, opened at -3.5 vs. Marshall but was bet all the way to -5.5 by kickoff. CBS SportsLine projected a 29-19 victory for the favorite. The Thundering Herd, however, stunned the Mountaineers and won outright, 17-7.
— The Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Denver Nuggets 105-103 on Sunday on a last-second shot by Anthony Davis. But they had their five-game playoffs winning streak ATS stopped. In Game 1 vs. the Nuggets, the Lakers covered -7 and the total went over — a popular “square” parlay. Game 3 is Tuesday.
— The Yankees’ 10-game winning streak came to an abrupt end on Sunday with a 10-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox. Boston backers earned +180 on their tickets.
— Our early pick last week was the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens at -6.5. The line moved to -7.5, but the Ravens beat the Houston Texans, 33-16. Our record here is now 4-2.
