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Been watching this guy for hours.
He was borderline loose-aggressive and hit streaks where he would raise two-three times in a row.
While I had position on him, I had picked up nothing with which to challenge him.
Then he was on the button. I was in the big blind. He started fiddling with his chips. After hitting quite a few hands with his loose raises, he had suffered some setbacks and his chip stack had dwindled.
I looked down at pocket sixes.
“Oh come on now,” I said, baiting him. “You know you want to raise, go ahead and raise.”
He shot me a glance and fired a raise into the pot.
Almost instinctively, I reraised. He follow that with a reraise. At that point, I decided a call would be wise.
The flop comes 10-4-2 with two diamonds.
I check, he bets, I call.
The turn is the spade king. Looks like a threatening card so I bet. He calls.
The river is the diamond 8.
This time I check. He bets and I call.
He turns up Ad-Jd for a rivered flush and the absolute nuts.
So Monday morning quarterbacking, did we play it correctly?
May-be. Maybe not.
Card Player calculator says we’re a pre-flop favorite — not much, but a 51 percent favorite. After the flop, however, the villain — with two overcards and a flush draw — becomes a 55 percent favorite.
But the spade king on fourth street blunts that advantage significantly. In fact, we now go to the river as almost a 3-2 favorite.
Though there’s probably not much point to betting the king. Villain is going to call with most hands.
In fact, would we have had pocket kings or even ace-king in a no-limit game, we might have made a more substantial bet or even a sizable check-raise. But villain was short stacked and likely would have called regardless.
Bottom line. Favorites get run down in poker. It happens every day.
If you play the game, you might as well get used to it.
